AUD/USD Price Forecast: Advancing 20-day EMA backs more upside

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The AUD/USD pair trades 0.27% higher to near 0.7065 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms, following the release of the labor market data for January.

AUD/USD jumps to near 0.7065 as the Australian Dollar outperforms its peers.
Australian Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.1% in January.
Investors await the flash US Q4 GDP data.

Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%, while it was expected to rise to 4.2%. Fresh workers hired by Australian employers were 17.8K, lower than estimates of 20K and the previous reading of 68.5K.

Signs of stable job market conditions have reaffirmed hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. According to a report from Reuters, traders have fully priced in a hike in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% by the August meeting.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stable ahead of the release of the United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The US economy is estimated to have expanded at an annualized pace of 3%, slower than the previous reading of 4.4%.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7060 during the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher at 0.7002, keeping the short-term bias upward. Price action holds above this gauge, and a sustained close above the February 12 high at 0.7147 would extend the advance towards the round-figure of 0.7200.

Immediate support sits at the 20-EMA at 0.7002; as long as that floor contains dips, the pair could extend the recovery path.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 (bullish) supports ongoing momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected on February 19 at 11:04 GMT to say in the second bullet point that the Australian Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.1%, not 4.2%)

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate s.a.

The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.

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