ING’s commodities team says Copper has climbed to around a one‑month high alongside broader industrial metals as markets price reduced macro risks and potential US–Iran talks. They stress that Copper remains headline‑driven, with conflict escalation and energy spikes as key downside risks, while a de‑escalation scenario could see Copper outperform on rate‑cut expectations, a weaker Dollar and better risk appetite.

Headline‑driven rally with clear scenarios

"Copper rose to around a one‑month high this week, with broader gains across industrial metals as markets priced in easing macro risks."

"However, the market remains highly headline‑driven. Any escalation in the conflict, renewed spikes in energy prices or signs of softer demand could quickly reverse sentiment."

"In a de‑escalation scenario, copper would likely outperform, supported by expectations of eventual rate cuts, a weaker dollar and a broader improvement in risk appetite."

"Downstream supply risks are also gaining attention. Sulfuric acid is emerging as a bottleneck for SX‑EW copper output, with around half of seaborne sulfur transiting the Strait of Hormuz."

"China’s sulfuric acid prices have risen around 90% since the start of the Iran war. Export bans introduced following the Hormuz shipping halt are raising disruption risks to acid-dependent supply in Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)