Dow Jones futures decline due to increased risk aversion

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Dow Jones futures fall 1.26% to near 48,330 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 1.20% and 1.51% to near 6,800 and 24,650 at the time of writing.

Dow Jones futures slip as investors monitored rising Middle East tensions.
US military officials said they have destroyed IRGC posts, air-defense systems, and missile sites.
Equity futures struggle as higher Treasury yields lift discount rates, pressuring stock valuations.

US stock futures edged lower on Tuesday as investors tracked further escalations in the Middle East war. US military officials said on Tuesday that they have destroyed command posts of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as well as Iranian air defense and missile launch sites since the start of the joint Israeli-US offensive on Saturday.

Ebrahim Jabari, senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze,” per Reuters.

In regular US trading on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 rose 0.04% and 0.36%, respectively. Defense and energy stocks outperformed, with Northrop Grumman up 6%, Palantir Technologies gaining 5.8%, and Exxon Mobil rising 1.1%.

The 10-year yield rose to 4.07% after climbing 10 basis points, as escalating Middle East tensions boosted energy prices and inflation concerns. Equity futures struggle as higher Treasury yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings.

Moreover, rising fuel costs intensified inflation concerns, prompting traders to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Expectations for the next Fed rate cut have shifted to July from June, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though markets still price in two 25 basis point reductions.

(This story was corrected on March 3 at 10:39 GMT to say that expectations for the next Fed rate cut have shifted to July from June, not to September from July.)

Dow Jones FAQs

What is the Dow Jones?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

What is Dow Theory?

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

How can I trade the DJIA?

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

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