A breakthrough on averting a U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts ignited risk-on sentiment in tech. On November 10 (ET), NVIDIA jumped 5%. Given its tight linkage with the S&P 500, the chip giant has become a bellwether for the broader market.
Body:
After 40 days of stalemate, the U.S. federal government shutdown finally saw a turning point. A procedural vote in the Senate cleared a stopgap funding bill, quickly reviving risk appetite. With an end to the shutdown in sight, pent-up buying in tech stocks was unleashed. At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Monday explicitly voiced support for a “50-basis-point” rate cut in December. This aggressive stance resonated with market expectations.
Beyond NVIDIA, Micron surged 6%, AMD gained more than 4%, and TSMC climbed over 3%. AI data-analytics firm Palantir also rallied sharply, helping push the Nasdaq Composite up 2.27%. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird, commented: “This is a rebound after last week’s oversold conditions and a swift expression of ‘buy-the-dip’ in tech and AI. The AI theme has not faced any structural damage, and many earnings prints in the space have been strong.”
NVIDIA’s outsized influence
According to data published by The Kobeissi Letter in August 2025, NVIDIA’s weight in the S&P 500 has climbed to a record 8.2%. In other words, a single company now accounts for more than eight percent of the world’s most important equity benchmark.
Its influence continues to rise. Goldman Sachs’ latest tally reveals a striking fact: the correlation between the S&P 500 and NVIDIA now exceeds the index’s correlation with the equal-weight version of its 500 constituents. This means the impact of NVIDIA’s single stock on the broader U.S. market surpasses the composite average influence of all 500 members—an unusual phenomenon that underscores NVIDIA’s central role in today’s market.
Short-term price action
From an industry perspective, AI-driven demand continues to strain memory supply. Western Digital’s sharp rally on a 50% hike in NAND contract prices validates robust underlying AI demand, indirectly benefiting NVIDIA as the core provider of AI compute. At the company level, Citi issued a 30-day bullish call on NVIDIA and raised its target price from $210 to $220, directly boosting market confidence.
Technically, NVIDIA found solid support near the key $180 level and rebounded. The market is now watching whether it can challenge the medium-term resistance around $212. A convincing breakout with rising volume could open a path toward $220. Conversely, $175 remains an important support to hold.
Bottom line
NVIDIA’s strong rally on November 10 was a confluence of easing macro-political risk, improving industry fundamentals, and renewed single-stock confidence. Given NVIDIA’s unprecedented influence in U.S. equities, whether it can decisively clear the $212 resistance may not only determine its own near-term prospects, but also set the tone for sentiment across U.S. tech—and the broader market—in the short run.
