ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent are up around 2% after sharp volatility around $100/bbl as markets react to conflicting US‑Iran ceasefire signals. They highlight rising US crude inventories, mixed product balances, and ongoing Middle East disruptions, which are keeping European gas prices elevated and tightening seaborne crude flows to Asia.

Geopolitics and inventories drive crude

"Oil prices were volatile on Wednesday, trading on either side of $100/bbl, as markets weighed mixed signals around potential US‑Iran talks."

"Any credible de‑escalation could trigger a renewed risk‑on move, but for now uncertainty remains elevated."

"US oil inventories continued to build, with EIA data showing crude stocks rising by 6.9m barrels last week – marking a fifth consecutive increase and well above the 2.3m barrel build flagged by the API. Total crude stocks climbed to 456.2m barrels, the highest since June 2024, while Cushing inventories surged by 3.4m barrels to 30.9m barrels, the biggest weekly gain since January 2023. Crude imports fell to 6.5m b/d, while exports dropped sharply to 3.3m b/d, the lowest since November 2025."

"Product balances were mixed, with gasoline inventories falling by 2.6m barrels – slightly more than expected, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose by 3m barrels. Refinery utilisation increased by 1.5pp week-on-week to a robust 92.9%."

"Saudi Aramco is reportedly set to supply around 40m barrels of crude to China in April, while deliveries to India are expected to total roughly 23m barrels, slightly below last month. The decline reflects disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Aramco to reroute volumes via the Yanbu pipeline on the Red Sea, where export capacity of around 5m bbls/d remains well below pre‑conflict Gulf shipments. While the rerouting offers partial relief, it fails to fully offset lost capacity, pushing up costs for Asian importers and highlighting the conflict’s growing economic impact."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)