Pound Sterling receives support as Middle East tensions ease

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GBP/USD has rebounded from the modest losses recorded in the previous day, hovering near 1.3570 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The pair advances as market sentiment improves, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

GBP/USD rises as sentiment improves on expectations of Middle East conflict de-escalation.
Reports suggested a possible two-week extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices high, prompting expectations of two Bank of England rate hikes.

US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains after Washington revealed plans to deploy an additional 10,000 troops to the region.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to sustain elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures, leading markets to anticipate two interest rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Investors are also focused on today’s meeting between UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book indicated that economic activity remained moderate. At the same time, the latest US inflation figures, particularly the March Producer Price Index (PPI), rose to 4%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious about adjusting monetary policy in 2026.

Alberto Musalem commented that it is “likely” that higher oil prices could feed into core inflation, potentially keeping underlying inflation slightly below or around the 3% level.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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