EUR/CAD Price Forecast: Showing signs of topping at 1.6190 YTD highs

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The Euro is losing momentum against the Canadian Dollar on Friday.

The Euro clings to support above 1.6125 after having been rejected at 1.1690 for the second consecutive time.
Weak German Gross Domestic Product data is likely to weigh on the Euro on Friday.
EUR/CAD; A break below 1.6080 would confirm a Double top pattern.

The Euro is losing momentum against the Canadian Dollar on Friday. The common currency was rejected at the 1.6190 long-term highs for the second time this week, suggesting that the rally from late July highs is over, but bears should break below 1.6125 nd 1.6080 support levels to confirm a corrective reversal.

On the fundamental front, the cautious market is weighing both currencies against a stronger USD, but the downward revision of the German Q2 GDP seen earlier on Friday is likely to weigh on the Euro. Later today, Canada’s retail sales might help the CAD to extend its recovery.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 1.6080 area

The technical picture shows signs of topping at 1.6190. A potential double top at 1.6190 is a common sign of a trend shift, an idea supported by the bearish divergence in the 4-Hour RSI and the break of the ascending trendline.

Bears are being contained above the August 20 low, at 1.6125 so far, with a key support looming at the 1.6070-1.6080 area, where the August 14 and 19 lows meet the neckline of the above-mentioned DT pattern. The figure’s measured target is coincident with the August 11 low, at 1.5975.

On the flip side, the Euro should regain a reverse trendline, now at 1.6155, which is holding bulls so far on Friday, before aiming for a retest of the August 17 and 21 highs of 1.6190. Beyond here, the 127.2 Fibonacci retracement of the late-July bearish cycle, at 1.6225, is a plausible target.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.08%	0.01%	0.16%	0.01%	0.03%	0.12%	0.17%
EUR	-0.08%		-0.04%	0.05%	-0.05%	-0.10%	0.05%	0.10%
GBP	-0.01%	0.04%		0.10%	-0.02%	-0.06%	0.10%	0.14%
JPY	-0.16%	-0.05%	-0.10%		-0.14%	-0.13%	-0.10%	-0.04%
CAD	-0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.14%		-0.04%	0.11%	0.15%
AUD	-0.03%	0.10%	0.06%	0.13%	0.04%		0.16%	0.22%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.05%	-0.10%	0.10%	-0.11%	-0.16%		0.05%
CHF	-0.17%	-0.10%	-0.14%	0.04%	-0.15%	-0.22%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).