European natural Gas prices surged over 5% to settle above €33/MWh as markets weighed rising geopolitical risks and colder weather forecasts. With Russia intensifying air strikes on Ukraine’s Gas infrastructure and EU storage levels slipping below the five-year average, supply concerns are once again driving the market higher ahead of the heating season, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

TTF futures rise above €33 amid cold weather outlook

"European natural Gas prices ended higher with TTF futures rising by 5.3% to settle above EUR33/MWh yesterday. Prices remain supported amid persistent risks to supplies, along with expectations of colder weather conditions driving up demand. Recent reports suggest that Russia has intensified air strikes across Ukraine, further damaging Gas infrastructure."

"Meanwhile, recent weather forecasts suggest colder-than-normal temperatures in the coming months, which might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. Meanwhile, EU storage is now almost 83% full, down from 94.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 90.4%."