Research from CMoney suggests Apple is benefiting from a dual tailwind: accelerating services revenue and warming Mac demand. Morgan Stanley’s latest report shows February App Store revenue grew roughly 9% year over year, accelerating by about 230 basis points from January. If March follows typical seasonality, quarterly App Store growth could reach 8% to 8.5%, while services revenue growth is projected to remain steady at 13.5%. For a company with a market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion, stabilization in high-margin services growth alone provides strong valuation support.

On the hardware front, positive signals are also emerging. Delivery times for several Mac products in the U.S. have lengthened since mid-February — Mac Studio at around 27 days, MacBook Pro M4 about 23 days, and Mac mini roughly 19 days. Morgan Stanley noted that non-PC competitors have not experienced similar delivery delays, suggesting Apple-specific demand strength. The trend may also be linked to a locally run AI agent application known as OpenClaw (also called Moltbot), which has gained traction. Such on-device AI applications emphasizing privacy and low latency align well with Apple’s in-house chip design, balancing CPU, GPU, and machine learning accelerators. The dual validation from services and hardware directly fueled the recent share price gains.

The Defensive Premium of Avoiding the AI Arms Race

While Microsoft, Google, and Meta are building AI moats through massive capital expenditure programs, Apple has chosen a markedly different path.

Reports indicate Apple is partnering with Google to integrate generative AI capabilities such as Gemini, rather than heavily investing in its own data centers and large language models. It is said that Apple reduced capital expenditure by around twenty percent last year, demonstrating strict capital discipline. This “light capital, heavy collaboration” approach allows Apple to benefit from AI adoption at the application layer while avoiding the high and cyclical investment burdens of cloud infrastructure and data centers.

Several analysts have commented that if AI capital expenditure fails to deliver expected returns, or if valuations reset, capital-intensive cloud and semiconductor companies could face significant earnings downgrades. Apple, by staying out of the data center arms race, maintains greater operational flexibility. As funds retreat from high-beta AI names, capital may rotate back into companies with strong free cash flow, healthy balance sheets, and resilient brand ecosystems.

According to Bloomberg data, Apple’s 40-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen to 0.21, its lowest level since 2006. This metric has steadily declined from a peak of 0.92 last May, suggesting Apple is breaking away from the previous pattern of moving in lockstep with the broader tech index. B. Riley Wealth’s Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan commented, “Apple’s lack of correlation is absolutely a positive right now. We are in an AI whack-a-mole environment where investors are so nervous about what gets disrupted next that they shoot first and ask questions later.” Wayne Kaufman, Chief Market Analyst at Phoenix Financial Services, offered a more direct explanation: “Hardware risk is far lower than software risk. After all, you can’t use AI to code yourself a new iPhone.”

Outlook for Apple Shares

In the short term, Apple’s technical levels are clear. The February 24 closing price of $272.14 places the stock firmly above $270. The next resistance zone lies between $280 and $285, near the January high where trading volume was concentrated. Support has shifted upward to the $265–$268 range. Volume on the recent rally expanded moderately, suggesting institutional buying interest.

Over the medium term, market focus will center on two key data points. First, whether App Store growth can maintain around 8% year-over-year expansion in the March quarter. Sustained services growth would support overall margins and cash flow. Second, whether Mac delivery times and order strength persist beyond March and translate into confirmed shipments and revenue recognition. If on-device AI applications continue to gain traction, Mac and iPad could enter a new upgrade cycle.

Morgan Stanley maintains its “Overweight” rating with a $315 price target, emphasizing services growth and an AI-driven hardware cycle. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives previously set a $350 target, arguing that Apple’s ecosystem of over 2.5 billion active iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones could generate incremental earnings of $75 to $100 per share over the coming years if AI monetization succeeds.

However, cautionary voices remain. Some analysts note that Apple’s relatively moderate profit growth outlook results in a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 30 times — higher than all other Magnificent Seven peers except Tesla, and above the Nasdaq 100 average of 24 times. Meanwhile, rising memory chip prices pose increasing cost pressures, particularly as Apple’s growth lags other tech leaders. Analysts forecast revenue growth of 11% for the fiscal year ending in September, slowing to 6.7% in fiscal 2027. If consumer demand weakens, high-margin services and subscription renewals may provide a buffer, but may not fully offset a potential downturn in the hardware cycle.