AI Business Accelerates, but Revenue Inflection Still Awaited as Wall Street Takes a Cautiously Optimistic View on Salesforce
Salesforce maintained double-digit growth in its latest earnings report, with commercialization progress of its flagship AI product, Agentforce, drawing significant market attention. However, while several Wall Street banks acknowledge the momentum in AI-related business, they remain cautious about whether overall revenue growth will meaningfully reaccelerate.

The earnings report showed steady fourth-quarter performance, with Agentforce gaining traction at a faster pace. Morgan Stanley highlighted that Agentforce annual recurring revenue has reached $800 million, up 169% year over year. Data 360 ARR climbed to $1 billion, while quarterly Agentforce deal volume exceeded 29,000 transactions, representing a 50% sequential increase. Notably, more than 60% of Agentforce and Data 360 orders came from expansions within the existing customer base, indicating increasing product penetration and deeper adoption.

However, the current Agentforce product cycle alone may not be sufficient to significantly enhance Salesforce’s valuation. Investors are still looking for clear signs that total company revenue growth will accelerate.

Looking at the key remaining performance obligation metric, after excluding roughly three percentage points of foreign exchange tailwinds and about four percentage points of contribution from the Informatica acquisition, constant-currency cRPO growth stands at approximately 9%. This merely met company guidance and fell short of some investors’ expectations for an upside surprise.

JPMorgan noted that as Salesforce transitions toward a consumption-based model through Flex Credits, the traditional linkage between cRPO and revenue could weaken. Around 50% of Agentforce orders in the fourth quarter adopted this model. In addition, the company announced a share repurchase program of up to $50 billion and reaffirmed its target of achieving revenue reacceleration in the second half of fiscal 2027, providing medium- to long-term support for growth.

In contrast, some institutions remain more cautious. Wells Fargo maintained a Neutral rating, arguing that the strengths in Agentforce were offset by a lack of broader upside in overall performance, and that clearer signals of growth recovery are needed. Citi Research also reiterated a Neutral stance, stating that organic performance fell short of expectations, with marketing and e-commerce segments under pressure. In its view, AI-related growth is not yet sufficient to drive overall acceleration.

Market Interpretation:

As Agentforce continues to strengthen, Salesforce remains on track toward its long-term revenue target of $63 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, recent pullbacks in the enterprise software sector, amplified by concerns about AI disruption, have weighed on sentiment. Notably, Salesforce has also announced a new $50 billion share repurchase plan, replacing all previously unused authorizations, reinforcing management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

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