AUD/USD rises on RBA hike expectations, strong China data

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AUD/USD rises on Monday, trading around 0.7060 at the time of writing, up 1.16% on the day. The pair rebounds strongly after two days of losses, supported by renewed optimism around the Australian Dollar (AUD) and expectations of further monetary tightening in Australia.

AUD/USD strengthens as markets anticipate another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The RBA is expected to raise its policy rate on Tuesday, reinforcing expectations of a still restrictive monetary stance.
Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is also supporting the Aussie, which remains closely tied to China.

Investors are positioning ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets widely expect the central bank to deliver another 25-basis-point interest rate hike, which would bring the Official Cash Rate to 4.10%. At its previous meeting in February, the RBA had already raised its rate to 3.85% while keeping the door open for further tightening in order to contain inflationary pressures.

According to DBS Bank economist Philip Wee, the Australian Dollar is currently supported by relatively hawkish domestic fundamentals, even though the global environment remains marked by risk aversion linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The bank notes that markets have largely priced in another RBA rate hike, which could help support AUD/USD as long as US monetary policy does not turn more restrictive.

Analysts at BBH share a similar view. The bank sees another rate increase as the base-case scenario, highlighting that Australian inflation remains elevated at around 3.8% YoY, which justifies maintaining a restrictive monetary stance to contain price pressures.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains slightly on the defensive ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision scheduled for Wednesday. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range, which is limiting the Greenback’s recovery for now.

The Aussie is also receiving support from stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s Retail Sales rose 2.8% YoY in the January-February period, beating market expectations, while Industrial Production increased by 6.3% over the same period. These indicators tend to benefit the Aussie, as the Australian economy is highly dependent on Chinese demand for its commodity exports.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.65%	-0.60%	-0.33%	-0.38%	-1.13%	-1.37%	-0.42%
EUR	0.65%		0.14%	0.31%	0.29%	-0.47%	-0.60%	0.23%
GBP	0.60%	-0.14%		0.25%	0.15%	-0.61%	-0.76%	0.13%
JPY	0.33%	-0.31%	-0.25%		-0.01%	-0.78%	-0.86%	-0.08%
CAD	0.38%	-0.29%	-0.15%	0.00%		-0.75%	-0.91%	-0.01%
AUD	1.13%	0.47%	0.61%	0.78%	0.75%		-0.15%	0.82%
NZD	1.37%	0.60%	0.76%	0.86%	0.91%	0.15%		0.90%
CHF	0.42%	-0.23%	-0.13%	0.08%	0.01%	-0.82%	-0.90%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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