• GBP/USD climbs 0.42% to 1.3432 as November NFP and higher unemployment weigh heavily on the Dollar.
• US Retail Sales stagnate, while control group surges, sending mixed signals on consumer strength and growth.
• Markets price 92% odds of a BoE rate cut Thursday, though Sterling remains supported by broad Dollar weakness.

The GBP/USD surges 0.42% on Tuesday as the latest US jobs report revealed the labor mark weakness, while Retail Sales were unexpectedly unchanged from September figures, an indication of consumers’ resilience. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3432 after reaching a daily low of 1.3355.

Sterling rallies after softer US NFP figures, flat Retail Sales reinforcing the need for rate cuts

US Nonfarm Payrolls in November came at 64K, but better than the 50K expected, an improvement compared to October’s -105K print. The data pushed the Unemployment Rate from 4.4% to 4.6%, above estimates of 4.5% by Federal Reserve officials, which updated their forecasts at the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Other data revealed that Retail Sales in October were unchanged at 0%, down from September’s 0.1% increase and below forecasts for a 0.1% gain.  Retail Sales in he control group which is used with the consumer spending component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved from -0.1% contraction and rose sharply 0.8% for the same period.

After the data, Cable rose towards the daily high while the US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, falls 0.35% down at 97.91.

In the UK, jobs data pushed the Unemployment Rate to its highest level since early 2021. At the same time S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) suggested that business activity remains robust.

Despite this, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would cut rates on Thursday remain at a 92% chance, revealed Capital Edge rates data. For 2026, traders had priced in 60 bps of easing.

A Reuters poll revealed that most analysts expect the BoE to reduce the Bank Rate from 4% to 3.75%.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Given the fundamental backdrop, the GBP/USD uptrend remains intact, but buyers must clear the October 17 high of 1.3471 to have a clear path to challenge 1.3500 and higher prices. Conversely a drop below 1.3400 would expose the 100-day SMA at 1.3369 as the first support level, followed by the 200-day SMA At 1.3343.