• Gold holds near $4,400 as Middle East war keeps safe-haven demand alive.
• Rising Oil, firmer DXY and higher Treasury yields continue to limit bullion’s rebound.
• Markets price no Fed cuts in 2026 as inflation risks tied to the war remain elevated.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured on Tuesday, remaining near its opening price amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon plans to deploy a brigade combat team from the Army's elite Airborne Division. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,404, after hitting a daily low of $4,306.

Bullion struggles for direction as rising energy prices and firm US yields offset persistent geopolitical tension

Geopolitics remain in the driver's seat in financial markets, amid worries that hostilities would resume if the US and Iran talks fail to provide an agreement in four days. Meanwhile, high energy prices have prompted investors to trim bets on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish stance, as the war in Iran is about to enter its fifth week and has disrupted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's Oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.

As of writing, Oil prices are rising, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up more than 3% to $91.65. The Greenback, which has remained positively correlated with WTI over the last two weeks, is gaining 0.34%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck versus six currencies, trades at 99.50 after bouncing off daily lows of 99.09.

Recently, Axios revealed that the US and a group of regional mediators are discussing hosting high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday. Still, they're waiting for Iran's response.

Business activity in the US slowed, according to S&P Global's March Flash PMIs. The S&P Global Services PMI slowed from 51.7 to 51.1 while the services index improved from 51.6 to 52.4. Finally, the S&P Global Composite PMI for March, which comprises both indices, dipped from 51.9 in February to 51.4 in the current month.

Earlier, US jobs data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed its 4-week Employment Change average improved from 9K to 10K.

Fed to hold rates in 2026

Money markets do not expect any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, following last week's meeting. Uncertainty about the duration of the US-Israel and Iran conflict has increased the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal, a headwind for bullion prices.

The swaps market had priced in a 14% chance of a rate hike at the FOMC's April meeting. US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year T-note up nearly five and a half basis points at 4.408%.

US jobs data, Fed speeches ahead on the US economic calendar

On Wednesday, the US economic docket is light, aside from Fed Governor Stephen Miran's speech. By Thursday, US jobs data would be released, followed by speeches by Fed officials Cook, Miran, Jefferson and Barr.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold to remain sideways as doji emerges

Gold's technical picture remains bullish, as Monday's price action formed a hammer and the yellow metal hit a daily low of $4,098, shy of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,077.

As of writing, price action remains sideways, poised to form a doji candle, indicating traders' indecision.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold; the slope has turned flat, an indication that sellers remain in charge.

For a bullish continuation, XAU/USD must clear the Monday daily high at $4,536, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,590. A breach of the latter will expose the March 20 high of $4,736 ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,960.

On the downside, a Gold daily close below the February 2 cycle low of $4,402 would exacerbate a test of the November 13 high, which has turned support at $4,245, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $4,077.