• NZD/USD trades higher, supported by an improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity.
• Chinese PMI figures boost the appeal of the NZD, which is highly exposed to China’s economic outlook.
• Firm US inflation data continue to cap the pair’s upside potential.

NZD/USD trades around 0.6030 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. The pair strengthens amid supportive macroeconomic signals from China, New Zealand’s main trading partner, which underpin the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD).

The upward move in NZD/USD follows the release of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Data published by RatingDog show that Chinese manufacturing activity rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, in line with market expectations. This reading, the highest since October 2025, confirms a moderate return to expansion territory and improves the outlook for so-called China-linked currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar.

This external support allows the Kiwi to hold firm despite an international environment that remains uncertain. Investors continue to assess the implications of US monetary policy amid persistent inflationary signals. The latest data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5% MoM in December, above market expectations. On a yearly basis, the index accelerated to 3%, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures remain present at the producer level.

These figures support the US Dollar by strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US political backdrop also plays a role. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, set to replace Jerome Powell at the end of his term, is seen by markets as a factor of cautious continuity. While Kevin Warsh is associated with a preference for a smaller balance sheet and potentially lower rates over the longer term, his track record suggests a strong sensitivity to inflation risks.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US data releases, particularly the Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). In the meantime, NZD/USD remains supported by improving Chinese indicators, while the strength of US data limits the extent of the advance and keeps traders cautious at the start of the week.