Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every warns that conflict around Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly extend the energy normalization timeline. He notes that clearing potential mines may take weeks to months and argue that futures markets are materially underpricing real supply risks in both crude Oil and natural gas, with implications for prices into Q4.

Hormuz risks and mispriced energy futures

"Within the Strait, Iran fired on ships and outright seized two, while there are suspicions it used speedboats to mine the key waterway more extensively."

"The marine drones now being employed are relatively untested compared to older minesweeping techniques, but estimates using previous benchmarks run from weeks to months to clear Hormuz, depending on how many mines are present."

"That could add to an energy normalisation timeline which already risks seeping into Q4."

"Futures markets are still materially under-pricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas."

"The Iran war is also driving up Panama Canal lane prices to a record high of up to five times the pre-war level, mainly as Asian LNG importers bid for access."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)