USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.3950 near ascending channel top

USD/CAD may test the immediate barrier at the top trendline of the ascending channel around 1.3970.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 signals steady buying momentum.
The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.3915.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.3930 during European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the price is positioned slightly below the top trendline of an ascending channel, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias.

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The USD/CAD pair is holding a modest bullish bias as price sits above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of these EMAs below spot suggests a constructive underlying tone, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 hints at steady, non-extreme upside momentum, reinforcing the view that recent gains remain supported rather than overstretched.

The USD/CAD pair is targeting the immediate barrier at the top trendline of the ascending channel around 1.3970. A successful break above the channel would reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.3915, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.3876. Further support lies at the lower trendline of the ascending channel around 1.3790. A break below the channel would cause a bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to navigate the region around 1.3481, the lowest level since October 2024.

However, strategists at Scotiabank note that the Canadian Dollar continues to draw some backing from commodity and rate dynamics, with “firmer crude oil prices…providing a little cover for the CAD, as are steady front-end US-Canada yield spreads.” However, they caution that this support may prove insufficient in the face of broader Greenback strength, warning that “the CAD will struggle to resist the broader trend in the USD into and around the FOMC decision regardless.”