UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia highlight a strong USD/JPY rally to just under 159.00, driven by higher US yields. Intraday, they see scope for a test of 159.45 while warning that deeply overbought conditions make further gains difficult. Over the next few weeks, a break above 159.45 would shift focus to 160.00, with 158.00 as strong support.

Overbought Dollar but upside risk persists

"24-HOUR VIEW: Conditions are deeply overbought, but as long as 158.55 holds (minor support is at 158.75), there is room for USD to test the significant resistance level at 159.45. Given the deeply overbought conditions, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely, and the 160.00 level is also unlikely to come into view."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Upward momentum has improved over the past few days, and from here, if USD breaks above 159.45, the focus will shift to 160.00. Overall, only a breach of 158.00 (‘strong support’ level previously at 157.20) would indicate that the upside risk has faded."

"1-3 MONTHS VIEW: There is a chance for USD/JPY to rise above 159.45; based on the lackluster upward momentum, any further advance is unlikely to threaten the 2024 high of 162.00. (dated 06 Mar 2026, 157.45)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)