USD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs further beyond 160.00 as Mideast tensions undermine JPY

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The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a one-week low, touched the previous day.

USD/JPY regains positive traction following the overnight pullback from a one-month high.
Mideast tensions undermine the JPY and support spot prices amid reviving USD demand.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a one-week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 160.25-160.30 region, up nearly 0.25% for the day, and remain well within striking distance of the highest level since late April.

The US and Iran continue to send mixed and contradictory signals regarding a potential peace deal, keeping a lid on the latest optimism and undermining the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, revive the US Dollar (USD) demand and lend additional support to the USD/JPY pair.

However, speculations that Japanese authorities would step in again to prop up the domestic currency might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Investors might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on June 15-16. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.

From a technical perspective, the overnight corrective fall showed some resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move up favors the USD/JPY bulls and suggests that the path of last resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. However, mixed momentum indicators hint at waning upside pressure rather than a decisive bearish reversal, warranting caution before positioning for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the neutral 50 region, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting slightly in negative territory. That said, any corrective pullback is likely to find initial support at the 100-period SMA around 159.68. As long as USD/JPY defends this underlying support belt, dips are likely to attract buyers. A convincing break below the said pivot is needed to offset the prevailing uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.45%	0.95%	1.76%	2.04%	2.87%	2.20%	1.94%
EUR	-1.45%		-0.50%	0.22%	0.57%	1.46%	0.79%	0.47%
GBP	-0.95%	0.50%		0.69%	1.08%	1.87%	1.24%	0.95%
JPY	-1.76%	-0.22%	-0.69%		0.35%	1.18%	0.47%	0.21%
CAD	-2.04%	-0.57%	-1.08%	-0.35%		0.83%	0.12%	-0.12%
AUD	-2.87%	-1.46%	-1.87%	-1.18%	-0.83%		-0.66%	-0.94%
NZD	-2.20%	-0.79%	-1.24%	-0.47%	-0.12%	0.66%		-0.29%
CHF	-1.94%	-0.47%	-0.95%	-0.21%	0.12%	0.94%	0.29%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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