Societe Generale analysts note that the Dollar is on the back foot into US NFP, with recent weak retail sales driving a tactical bid in Treasuries. They argue soft employment data could push 10-year UST yields towards 4.0% and trigger a dovish repricing of the March FOMC meeting, currently priced at just -5bp.

Soft NFP could hit Dollar further

"Payrolls Wednesday, bonds bid, dollar on the backfoot."

"Soft employment data today could be the trigger for a retracement towards 4.0% and spur a dovish repricing of the March FOMC meeting from a trivial -5bp this morning."

"The context to today’s delayed NFP report: the US labour force is shrinking, employment growth is slowing, but the FOMC statement two weeks ago upgraded the labour market assessment."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)