• Price is holding above both the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart, confirming a bullish structure shift from the January lows
• A surprise 8.53 million barrel EIA inventory build cap upside potential near the $66.25 swing high

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged above $65.00 per barrel on Wednesday, gaining over 1% as escalating US-Iran tensions continued to inject a geopolitical risk premium into energy markets. The daily chart shows price trading firmly above both the 50 EMA at $60.85 and the 200 EMA at $62.39, confirming the bullish reversal from the $55.68 swing low printed in early January. The rally has carved out a series of higher highs and higher lows since that base, with today's push toward $65.64 testing the $66.25 resistance zone that marks the recent swing high.

Fundamentally, the move higher is being driven by fears that US-Iran nuclear talks could collapse, potentially triggering military action that would disrupt crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the geopolitical noise, Bloomberg reported that President Trump is privately weighing an exit from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of the July 1 mandatory review, a move that would upend North American energy trade and expose Canadian crude exports to significantly higher tariffs. On the data front, January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) printed at 130K against a 70K consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, suggesting the US labor market is holding steady enough to support energy demand in the near term.

Inventory shock meets geopolitical bid at key resistance

Despite the bullish momentum, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at a staggering +8.53 million barrels against expectations of a -0.2 million barrel draw, the largest weekly build in months. The Stochastic Oscillator (14,5,5) is sitting in neutral-bullish territory but approaching the overbought threshold at 80. This suggests the current rally still has room to extend, though the combination of bloated inventories and the $66.25 resistance overhead creates a natural stalling point. If bulls can push through $66.25 on a daily close, the measured move from the January base projects toward the $68.00 to $69.00 zone.

A failure to clear that level, particularly if the USMCA withdrawal narrative gains traction and threatens Canadian oil supply chains, could see WTI retreat toward the 200 EMA at $62.39. Traders should also watch for Thursday's International Energy Agency (IEA) Natural Gas Storage report, which has already warned of a sizeable supply surplus for 2026, alongside OPEC's monthly outlook released earlier today that pointed to lower demand from the group in Q2; both carry the potential to shift the supply-demand narrative and pressure prices lower despite the prevailing geopolitical bid.

WTI daily chart