Australia releases September jobs data overnight, with consensus expecting a 20k rise in employment after August’s 5k drop, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

AUD remains tightly linked to US-China trade headlines

"The unemployment rate is seen ticking up from 4.2% to 4.3%, though that’s unlikely to concern the RBA unless we see another weak print or a sharper rise in joblessness. For now, the focus remains on inflation, with 3Q CPI due 29 October. We think it can endorse a cut by year-end, though not as early as the 4 November meeting."

"Still, AUD remains tightly linked to US-China trade headlines, given its status as the most China-sensitive G10 currency. The overnight rally shows markets' nerves are a bit calmer, but further escalations would weigh heavily on AUD, particularly against alternative safe havens like EUR, JPY, and CHF. For AUD/USD, the reaction will hinge on whether new tariffs trigger broader pressure on US assets and the dollar."

"Assuming a conciliatory Trump-Xi meeting at the end of October, our 0.680 year-end target for AUD/USD remains plausible."