• AUD/USD trades without a clear direction as strong US indicators support the Greenback.
• A drop in weekly Jobless Claims reinforces the view of a resilient US labor market.
• Australian inflation expectations edge lower, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance.

AUD/USD trades around 0.6680 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest a batch of encouraging US economic data alongside mixed signals from Australia.

On the US side, the latest labor market figures confirm continued strength. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198,000 last week from 207,000 previously, well below expectations. Continuing Jobless Claims also declined to 1.884 million, reinforcing the narrative of a still-resilient US economy. These figures come on top of strong activity indicators, including a solid rebound in Retail Sales and a Producer Price Index (PPI) that remains elevated, underlining persistent inflationary pressures.

In this environment, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintain a cautious tone. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said inflation pressures could extend beyond the current year and stressed the need to keep monetary policy restrictive as long as inflation remains too high. This rhetoric, combined with firm macroeconomic data, supports the US Dollar (USD) and caps upside potential in AUD/USD.

In Australia, the pair loses some momentum after the release of Consumer Inflation Expectations. The January reading edged down to 4.6% from 4.7% previously, suggesting households still expect elevated price pressures, but at a slightly slower pace. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, acknowledging that inflation has eased significantly from its 2022 peak, while remaining above the 2%-3% target range.