Comex Copper prices are under significant pressure, falling almost 19% after the White House provided further details on Copper tariffs set to take effect on 1 August, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Risk of tariffs on refined Copper at a later stage

"The 50% tariff will only apply to semi-finished Copper products; refined and concentrate imports will be excluded. Until the announcement, Copper prices in the US had been trading at a 28% premium over the LME price, with the market front-running expected tariffs."

"However, the strong flow of refined Copper into the US will come to an end with the Comex-LME arb collapsing. However, there is still the risk of tariffs on refined Copper at a later stage, with the US Secretary of Commerce recommending a phased universal tariff on refined Copper of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028."