The European benchmark price for gas (TTF) jumped at the start of the week, trading at nearly EUR 33 per MWh, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Refilling of gas storage has already slowed to a near halt

"The reason are weather forecasts, which, according to Bloomberg, predict colder-than-usual temperatures for the coming month. Against this backdrop, concerns may arise that gas storage levels—while having increased significantly since spring, but remain below levels of previous years—could start to drop more rapidly."

"In addition to increased heating demand, reduced gas flows from Norway, the EU's most important supplier, due to ongoing maintenance work, could also contribute to this. According to GIE data, the refilling of gas storage has already slowed to a near halt over the past week, with only a minimal increase from 82.5% to 82.75%."

"In September, weekly increases averaged just over one percentage point. In Germany, storage levels have even decreased slightly, from 76.7% to 76.3%."