• EUR/CAD appreciates amid a cautious tone surrounding the ECB policy stance.
• ECB Lagarde said the central bank will adjust rates if needed to maintain its 2% target.
• The CAD weakens as WTI prices fall on hopes of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal.

EUR/CAD gains ground after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 1.6240 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the Euro (EUR) receives support from the cautious sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.

The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows. The preliminary data showed Eurozone private-sector activity grew robustly in November, slightly below October’s more than two-year high and broadly in line with expectations, supporting the cautious view of the ECB outlook.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that the central bank will remain vigilant to inflation risks and will adjust interest rates, if needed, to keep inflation at 2% target. ECB Governing Council (GC) member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said on Thursday that the current monetary policy is appropriate and any adjustment is unlikely, unless there is a material change.

The EUR/CAD cross also gains ground as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses ground due to declining Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the fourth successive session, trading around $57.90 per barrel at the time of writing. Oil prices decline as the US pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could boost crude flows into an already well-supplied market.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that Retail Sales fell 0.7% in September, in line with market expectations and reversing August’s 1% increase. The decline was primarily driven by a 2.9% drop in motor vehicle and parts dealers, led by a 3.6% fall in new car sales.