• EUR/USD recovers from early losses as traders digest a mixed set of delayed September US jobs data.
• Strong NFP headline contrasts with softer wage growth and a higher Unemployment Rate.
• Markets remain cautious on the Fed outlook, given the limited labour information available ahead of the December meeting.

The Euro (EUR) reverses earlier losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the Greenback loses momentum after traders reacted to a mixed batch of delayed September US labour-market data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1541, recovering from an intraday low near 1.1502.

The delayed September US labour report delivered a mixed overall picture. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 119K, easily beating the 50K forecast, while the earlier month was revised to show a 4K decline instead of the originally reported 22K increase. The Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.4%, slightly higher than the 4.3% expected. The Labour Force Participation Rate improved to 62.4%, reflecting a modest pickup in workforce engagement.

Wage growth softened on a monthly basis, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, earnings were up 3.8% YoY, marginally above the 3.7% consensus. Average Weekly Hours remained steady at 34.2.

The mixed nature of the data, including strong headline hiring, weaker wage momentum, a slightly higher jobless rate and a downward revision to August, kept market reaction contained. The report carries added importance because the October jobs release has been postponed, making September one of the few labour readings available to the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 39% probability of a December rate cut, down from roughly 50% a week ago.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained a hawkish stance in her latest remarks, cautioning against cutting interest rates at this stage. She warned that lowering rates now could distort market pricing and risk prolonging inflation. Hammack also noted that early easing may encourage financial risk-taking and potentially elevate financial stability risks. She added that so-called “risk-management” cuts could unintentionally increase vulnerabilities in financial markets.