• Solana holds below $130 as supply continues to overwhelm demand on Monday.
• The 100-day EMA confirms a Death Cross pattern after crossing below the 200-day EMA on the daily chart.
• SOL ETFs extended inflows on Friday even as related investment products experienced outflows of $156 million last week.

Solana (SOL) remains marginally below $130 at the time of writing on Monday, reflecting risk-off sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. SOL hit an intraday high of $134 but retraced, signaling growing uncertainty and high volatility.

Retail interest in Solana remains relatively low, as evidenced by the futures market Open Interest (OI) $6.95 billion on Monday. Since OI, which represents the notional value of outstanding futures contracts, hit a record high of $17.1 billion on September 19, a price downtrend has persisted amid an elusive recovery.

Solana futures OI must steadily rise to support risk-on sentiment as investors increasingly bet on higher prices. However, a weak derivatives market could uphold the downtrend toward $100.

Solana struggles amid steady ETF inflows 

Solana Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed in the United States (US) maintained their steady inflow streak, recording nearly $11 million in inflows on Friday. According to SoSoValue, SOL ETFs have cumulative net inflows of approximately $510 million, with net assets averaging $719 million.

The steady inflow trend suggests that institutional investors are turning toward newly launched altcoin-based ETFs. ETF demand is crucial for driving sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, with inflows supporting a short-term bullish outlook.

Technical outlook: Solana recovery stalls

Solana is trading below the round-number hurdle of $130 at the time of writing on Monday. The token also holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $166, 100-day EMA at $178 and the 200-day EMA at $178, which slope lower and maintain a bearish bias.
The 50-day EMA at sits under both the 100- and 200-day EMAs, delineating a descending supply band. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line edges above the signal line near zero, with a modest positive histogram that suggests nascent upside momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stabilizing at 32, but still below the midline. Without a recovery through the short-term average, sellers would remain in control.

Overhead resistance aligns at $159 – $162, where the descending trend line from $261 meets the SuperTrend indicator. A break below the rising trend line from $95 reinforces the downside tone. Unless buyers reclaim that cluster, any bounce would face supply, while the broader downtrend would extend on fresh lows, targeting $100.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)