• Risk appetite lifted equities, but a firmer Greenback capped Aussie upside.
• Trump’s truce extension and vessel seizures kept Hormuz tensions in focus.
• Traders now await US jobless claims and Australian flash PMIs.

AUD/USD is stuck within a range as Middle East geopolitical tensions remain high, with US President Trump extending the ceasefire while Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, risk appetite sent the S&P 500 to an all-time high, while currencies leaned into the Greenback’s dynamics, which recovered some ground.

Aussie stays rangebound as geopolitics overshadow key data prints

The AUD/USD trades at 0.7160, up 0.12% as geopolitical headlines dominate the market’s narrative, leaving macroeconomic data aside. Trump’s decision to extend the truce is to allow Iran’s leadership to unify opinions and present a proposal to the US, as he said Iran’s top officials were in disarray, as revealed by Al Jazeera.

The Strait of Hormuz remains shut by both sides, with the US blockade remaining in place and seizing Iran-flagged tankers, while Iran did the same, seizing two cargo ships.

On the data front, the US economic docket remained absent on Wednesday, but on Thursday, data flows normalize. Traders will eye the release of Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending April 18, with economists projecting that 212K people filed for unemployment benefits, up from the prior week’s 207K.

In addition, April’s S&P Global Flash PMIs are awaited, with the manufacturing and services PMIs forecast to expand to 52.5 and 50, respectively.

In Australia, the schedule will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs for April, which in March contracted with the Manufacturing PMI coming at 49.8, while the Services PMI printed 46.3

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7156, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 0.7048 and respects the rising near-term trend-line support derived from the 0.6897 base, now coming in near 0.7057. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests steady bullish momentum without entering overbought territory, hinting that dips are likely to attract buyers while the broader uptrend off last year’s lows remains intact.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent closing area around 0.7156, with stronger demand likely emerging toward the rising trend-line and long-term SMA cluster between 0.7057 and 0.7048. On the topside, bulls face successive resistance from the medium-term ascending structure, with the first noteworthy cap implied by the higher support trend line’s break level at 0.7495, followed by the more significant structural barriers near 0.7765 and the long-term descending trend-line resistance originating at 0.8015.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)