• Bitcoin is trading near the $80,000 psychological resistance amid improving risk appetite and steady momentum indicators.
• Iran’s new proposal to the US prioritizes opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, and seeks to delay nuclear-centered discussions.
• The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Powell’s press conference likely to shape sentiment.
• The crypto market is at risk of escalating volatility amid $108 million in token unlocks this week.

The cryptocurrency market started the week on a fragile note, with Bitcoin (BTC) capped below the psychological $80,000 threshold. Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), are trading under pressure, as investors assess new developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on the broader market.

Meanwhile, traders are cautiously optimistic ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates, which may shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.

Middle East peace optimism builds with Iran’s new proposal

Iran is reported to have sent a new proposal to the United States (US) via Pakistan mediators following President Donald Trump’s cancellation of last Sunday’s peace talks.

The new proposal prioritizes opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. However, it seeks to delay discussions on Iran’s nuclear program to a later stage. Iran says that it is ready to open the Strait to commercial shipping on condition that the US drops its military blockade.

While the White House has received Iran’s proposal, it remains unclear whether the US will act on it, given that President Trump maintains that his country has the upper hand and wants Iran’s nuclear program completely dismantled.

Oil prices edged higher for the second consecutive week, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading slightly above $95.00 at the time of writing on Monday from $78.88 on April 10.

Investors stay cautious ahead of Fed decision

The US central bank's monetary policy decision is likely to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range at the end of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Its decision could be largely influenced by the US-Iran war, which continues to escalate the risk of higher inflation amid concerns over the job market.

Away from the rate decisions, the focus may be on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Market participants will be looking for insights into Powell’s language on the Fed’s policy direction and comments on the job market.

Concerns about a softening job market prompted the central bank to cut rates three times last year. While those concerns remain, the Labor Department’s estimate that US employers added 178,000 jobs in March eases pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in inflation, rose to 3.3% annually in March, up from 2.4% in February.

Potential supply shock ahead of $108 million token unlocks

Several token unlock events, totaling $108 million, are expected this week, led by Canton’s $23 million release on Monday. Jupiter and Celestia are the other notable unlocks taking place on the same day at $10 million and $64,000, respectively.

Grass will face a $7.72 million unlock on Tuesday, followed by Celestia at roughly $64,000. According to Defi Llama data, another Celestia’s unlock worth $64,000 is expected on Wednesday.

Other token unlocks of interest to investors include RedStone Finance at $5.32 million, Gunz at $5 million, Optimism at nearly $4 million, and ZORA Protocol at approximately $2 million, all on Thursday.

Traders should expect potential volatility across Starknet Bridge, which will release tokens worth nearly $5 million on Friday. Other releases on the same day include Sui Foundation’s approximately $2 million and Portal’s $648,000.

On Saturday, major unlocks include Sui Foundation’s nearly $16 million, Eigen Cloud’s $6.6 million, Sei’s $3.36 million and ZetaChain’s roughly $2.4 million.

Token unlocks are considered scheduled supply shocks, which can result in higher volatility. Anticipatory selling can occur before the events. However, the exact impact of the unlocks is nuanced, with instances of pricing in effects.

Technical outlook: Bitcoin eyes $80,000 breakout

Bitcoin trades at $77,820, holding above the reclaimed downward trendline and the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $68,300, which lends a mildly constructive undertone despite the pair remaining capped by the medium-term averages. The 50-week EMA around $86,000 and the 100-week EMA near $82,400 both sit overhead, keeping the broader structure in consolidation.
Still, the SuperTrend indicator at roughly $91,753 marks an intact uptrend cap. Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just below the 50 midline on the daily chart and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram turning positive and rising, hinting that bullish pressure is rebuilding but not yet dominant.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-week EMA around $82,400, followed by the 50-week EMA near $86,000. A sustained weekly close above these clustered moving averages would open the way toward the SuperTrend barrier at $91,753. On the downside, immediate focus is on whether bulls can defend the current $77,870 area, with more meaningful structural support emerging around the confluence of the reclaimed descending trendline near $68,600 and the 200-week EMA at about $68,300, where failures would likely revive a broader corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)