EUR/USD steadies below 1.1550, awaiting US payrolls’ data

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The Euro (EUR) is trading sideways between 1.1530 and 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) in a holiday-thinned session, with most markets closed on Good Friday. The pair is on track for a 0.3% weekly appreciation, yet with price action trapped halfway through March’s trading range.

EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1440 after bouncing up from 1.1510 lows.
US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to show a moderate increase in employment in March.
Technical indicators show a mild bearish pressure.

Mild risk aversion is keeping Euro rallies in check as the Iran war enters its 35th day, while markets shift their focus, at least temporarily, to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, due later on Friday. The US economy is expected to have created 60K new jobs in March, to partially offset February’s 92K decline, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD shows a neutral to bearish tone

EUR/USD's near-term bias is neutral with a slight downside tilt following rejection at a previous support trendline earlier this week. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped back below the signal line, highlighting an incipient bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flatlines around the 50 line, suggesting a lack of clear bias.

Immediate support lies at Thursday's low around the 1.1510 area, so far holding bears from a deeper reversal to March 30 lows at 1.1443 and the March 13 low, at 1.1422.

On the topside, initial resistance stands at the intraday level of 1.1563. Further up, the confluence of the mentioned broken trendline now at 1.1645 with the resistance area between 1.1620 and 1.1640, which has capped bulls several times in late March and early April, is likely to pose a significant challenge for bulls.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.