The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained slightly against the US Dollar (USD) as markets prepare for a heavy UK data calendar ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. With jobs, preliminary PMIs, and CPI releases scheduled this week, the widely expected 25bps rate cut to 3.75% leaves room for a neutral or hawkish surprise, while market positioning continues to price in significant easing risks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Markets brace for BoE rate decision on Thursday

"The pound is up a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD and a relative performer against most of the G10 currencies as we enter Monday’s NA session."

"The domestic calendar is heavy leading into Thursday’s BoE with jobs and preliminary PMI’s scheduled for Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, and retail sales following the central bank decision on Friday. A 25bpt cut — to 3.75%— is widely anticipated and risk lies with the statement tone (there will be no fresh forecasts)."

"We see scope for neutral/hawkish surprise in the aftermath of the latest budget, and note that markets are pricing considerable easing into the short-term rates market with options still pricing a sizeable premium for protection against GBP weakness."