In 2025, the gold market was nothing short of spectacular. The metal surged more than 60% for the year, set over 50 new all-time highs, and ultimately spiked to a peak of USD 4,381 per ounce in October. This was not a one-off spike, but a systemic rally driven by multiple forces working together.

The year did not start smoothly for gold. After two consecutive months of declines at the end of 2024, many investors were skeptical. But as 2025 got underway, market sentiment shifted sharply. Global uncertainty intensified, trade frictions moved from expectation to reality, and tension spread quickly. In this environment, capital began to seek safe havens again – and gold naturally became a preferred choice.

As US inflation data repeatedly undershot expectations, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and acknowledged signs of slowing economic growth. This signaled a rising probability of further rate cuts. For a non-yielding asset like gold, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding it and therefore increase its attractiveness.

Standing at the starting point of 2026 and looking back, gold is already trading in an unprecedentedly high band. After a yearly gain of more than 60%, it will be extremely difficult to replicate the same level of strength. However, many investors also believe that a deep and sharp correction is unlikely to occur easily.

The core logic supporting gold prices has not fundamentally changed: the global economy still faces structural challenges, major central banks’ monetary policies remain broadly accommodative, and while geopolitical conditions have not dramatically escalated, they are far from truly stable. In particular, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish stance to address potential downside risks to growth.

As long as interest rates do not move significantly higher and the US Dollar does not stage a strong rebound, gold will continue to enjoy valuation support. In addition, central banks’ sustained purchases of gold remain in place. This demand tends to be quite stable and often acts as a backstop when the market corrects.

Market Commentary:

On the 4-hour chart, gold has once again pushed to new highs, with the MACD lines and histogram expanding above the zero line. In 2026, the upward trajectory of gold prices is likely to unfold within a wide trading range, accompanied by gradual incremental gains, or phases of correction followed by renewed advances.

This pattern may not be as exciting as a one-way vertical surge, but it reflects the market’s self-balancing process at elevated levels.