NZD/USD Price Forecast: Refreshes weekly high near 0.5725 as US Dollar weakens

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The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh weekly high at around 0.5725 during the European trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength as risk-on market sentiment due to a slight cool down in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations has improved the appeal of antipodeans.

NZD/USD refreshes weekly high near 0.5725 as soft US data lifts market sentiment.
The US NFP data came in lower at 57K vs. 110K estimates.
The RBNZ is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps next week.

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.33%	-0.47%	-0.29%
EUR	0.25%		0.00%	0.04%	0.11%	-0.12%	-0.24%	-0.05%
GBP	0.25%	-0.00%		0.00%	0.11%	-0.13%	-0.24%	-0.04%
JPY	0.21%	-0.04%	0.00%		0.10%	-0.16%	-0.29%	-0.07%
CAD	0.13%	-0.11%	-0.11%	-0.10%		-0.26%	-0.37%	-0.15%
AUD	0.33%	0.12%	0.13%	0.16%	0.26%		-0.11%	0.09%
NZD	0.47%	0.24%	0.24%	0.29%	0.37%	0.11%		0.20%
CHF	0.29%	0.05%	0.04%	0.07%	0.15%	-0.09%	-0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% to near 7,500 in the European trade, exhibiting strong demand for riskier assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 100.70.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday.

Traders trimmed hawkish Fed prospects after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release, which showed that the economy created fewer jobs than expected. The US NFP data arrived at 57K in June, significantly lower than estimates of 110K.

On the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) front, investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%.

NZD/USD technical analysis

NZD/USD trades higher at around 0.5725, approaching the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.5733.

A sharp recovery move by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the 20.00-40.00 range suggests that the bearish momentum has faded.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 0.5733 is the first resistance to clear, and a daily close above it would ease near-term downside pressure and open the way for a further recovery towards 0.5800. Looking down, the selling pressure would emerge if the pair falls back below the June 14 low at 0.5630. Such a scenario would expose the pair to the November 2025 low at 0.5580.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.

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