ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices remain highly sensitive to shifting US–Iran negotiation headlines, with recent breakdowns in talks boosting prices. They highlight additional risks from Iranian threats in the Bab el‑Mandeb and Russia’s jet fuel export ban.

Oil reacts to Iran and Russia risks

"Oil prices received a boost yesterday as talks between the US and Iran appeared to break down -- again. This has become a common pattern in recent months, and there are still plenty of mixed messages. President Trump says that negotiations are continuing."

"As a result, oil prices continue to be whipsawed by quickly changing headlines."

"Iran, meanwhile, issued threats against vessels transiting the Bab el‑Mandeb, the narrow Red Sea chokepoint that carries a major share of the world’s energy shipments. This is a concern for oil markets, given that the Saudis have diverted a large amount of oil that should be exported from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea."

"The Russian government has banned jet fuel exports until the end of November amid the recent surge in Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. Russia is a marginal exporter of jet fuel, shipping only around 30k b/d."

"The global impact will be limited, but it’s still an unwelcome twist for a market already stretched thin by disruptions in the Middle East."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)