• XRP clings to short-term support at $1.10, but persistent selling pressure leaves it vulnerable to a further 10% drop toward $1.00.
• Mild inflows into spot ETFs and marginal increases in the derivatives market fall short of lifting sentiment and the XRP price.
• XRP remains largely defined by a bearish technical structure, with major moving averages and momentum indicators edging lower.

Ripple (XRP) upholds a broader bearish outlook, trending down at $1.10 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The remittance token failed to sustain an early-week rebound on Monday, with the headwinds primarily attributed to geopolitical uncertainty amid mixed signals from the United States (US) and Iran following the first round of peace negotiations in Switzerland.

While US Vice President JD Vance said late Monday that Iran had allowed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors back to the country, Iran denied the claim, saying that Tehran made "no new commitments.”

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the US agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump told reporters that “if Iran doesn’t live up to their agreement, or if they’re not behaving, I will do what I have to do.”

The crypto market remains pressured, with sentiment falling across the board, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which logged Extreme Fear territory at 23 on Monday, up only marginally from 20 the previous day.

XRP weakness persists despite mild investment inflows

Institutions are turning to XRP amid intense heads in the broader crypto market. The appetite is reflected in inflows into spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which increased to roughly $5 million on Monday, from nearly $3 million on Friday.

Cumulative inflows are steady at $1.45 billion, while assets under management average $993 million, according to SoSoValue. Sustained and increased demand for XRP ETFs is required to support an extended recovery. However, the overall sentiment in the crypto market remains on the back foot, suggesting that rallies could be sold, limiting growth.

Retail participation in the derivatives edges higher with futures Open Interest (OI) climbing marginally to $2.69 billion on Monday, up from $2.55 billion the previous day. The return of the retail market suggests that investors are increasing risk exposure. Nevertheless, it continues to fall short, with supply overwhelming demand in the spot market.

Price analysis: XRP holds key support

XRP trades above $1.10, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price holds well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.25, $1.35 and $1.56 respectively.

The pair is also trading under the middle Bollinger Bands $1.15 on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 leans toward weak bearish momentum. Meanwhile, a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram around zero only hints at tentative stabilization rather than a sustained recovery.

Initial resistance lies at the Bollinger Band midline near $1.15, followed by the upper band at $1.22. Above that, the 50-day EMA at $1.25 and the downward-sloping resistance trendline intersecting around $1.28 form a more substantial supply zone, ahead of the 100-day EMA at $1.35 and the 200-day EMA at $1.56. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at $1.07 offers the first notable support, and a clear break beneath this floor would expose the pair to further downside pressure toward the recent $1.05 support and the psychological demand area at $1.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)