In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla is at a crucial inflection point in its accelerated transformation from a “car company” into a “technology platform company.” From technology development and market structure to its profit model and the commercialization pace of autonomous driving, Tesla is building an integrated ecosystem that spans automobiles, robotics, energy and AI.
This month, market focus on Tesla has risen again, with the spotlight firmly on FSD, Robotaxi, the expansion of its energy storage business and its long-term growth outlook.
Throughout 2025, Tesla has continued to strengthen its investment in AI and autonomous driving. Powered by large-scale data, FSD V14 has further improved inference efficiency, with significantly enhanced consistency across both urban roads and highway scenarios. Elon Musk has stressed that the future center of gravity of Tesla’s valuation lies in “software + autonomy,” rather than traditional car manufacturing.
At the same time, the mass-production plan for Robotaxi (Cybercab) is progressing in an orderly manner, with production expected to officially begin in 2026. Analysts believe that FSD and Robotaxi together could ultimately contribute tens of billions of dollars in high-margin software revenue, and may even become the single most important growth engine within Tesla’s valuation.
In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered around 497,000 vehicles worldwide, representing year-on-year growth of about 7% and maintaining a solid growth trend. Compared with the growth of its auto business, Tesla’s energy storage segment (Megapack) continues to expand strongly. Quarterly deliveries reached 12.5 GWh, a new record high, and this segment is seen as a key driver for further diversification of the company’s future profit structure.
Since the start of 2025, Tesla’s profitability has come under some pressure. Third-quarter revenue was approximately USD 28.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year, but operating margin fell to around 5.8%. The main reasons include vehicle price cuts, a decline in regulatory credit revenue, rising production costs, and increased investment related to AI and Robotaxi.
Although Wall Street’s EPS forecasts for 2025–2026 have been revised lower, the market generally expects Tesla’s medium- to long-term profitability to improve progressively as FSD, Robotaxi, energy storage systems and the Optimus robot move toward commercialization.
Market Commentary:
Tesla’s defining feature is that short-term profits are under pressure, while the long-term growth story is becoming even stronger. The auto business is growing steadily, with software and autonomous driving emerging as the core of its valuation. Meanwhile, energy storage, robotics and AI are advancing on multiple fronts, opening up a second growth curve for the next decade.
