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CAD: Jobs data in focus today – ING
Oleh FXStreet Insights Team
Tarikh Diterbitkan: 5 Sep 2025 | Tarikh Diubah: 5 Sep 2025
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Canada releases August jobs data at the same time as the US today, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Canada releases August jobs data at the same time as the US today, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
CAD to be a laggard in the G10 space
"Expectations are for a 5k rise in employment after the 40k contraction in July. Given the volatility of payrolls figures, more focus is on the unemployment rate, which at 6.9% is already well above the 2018-2019 levels but is expected to climb to 7.0%, with risks skewed to an even higher figure in our view."
"While markets have brought forward expectations for the next cut to October, we think the probability of a move in September (15bp) is underpriced and we could see a dovish rerating after today’s jobs numbers. Inflation slowed further below target to 1.7% in July, and core measures remain at a tolerable 3.0%."
"We continue to expect CAD to be a laggard in the G10 space, although USD weakness should still keep USD/CAD capped to the 1.38 area in our view."
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