• Bitcoin rose toward $66,000 after softer US inflation data and easing Middle East tensions improved macro sentiment.
• Wintermute argues that the move reflects macro sensitivity rather than a durable change in Bitcoin market structure.
• K33 stated that Bitcoin remains sensitive to macro-driven price action, highlighting its correlation with the S&P 500 despite their contrasting trends.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from recent lows near $60,000 last week after softer-than-expected US inflation data and easing geopolitical tensions improved market sentiment. However, analysts at Wintermute stated in a note on Tuesday that the rebound has done little to alter the broader market structure.

BTC recovery driven by macro relief, not structural shift

Bitcoin has pushed toward the $60,000 mark after May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in largely in line with expectations and a ceasefire between the US and Iran eased concerns over a wider conflict. The developments supported a broader risk-on move across equities and digital assets.

Wintermute hinted that the recovery follows the selloff from two weeks ago, when Bitcoin fell 14% in a single week. While the decline was largely attributed to concerns surrounding Strategy's reported Bitcoin sale and capital raising, Wintermute argued that the move was primarily driven by a broader risk-off rotation.

"The reality was two other drivers: (i) a broad risk-off rotation on rising inflation fears and the strong NFP, (ii) plus the crypto-specific confirmation that the run from the low $60s to $83K had no further legs," the report said.

The firm noted that Bitcoin has now experienced three drawdowns of more than 20% since October, although the latest decline differs from the previous two in that it trapped both bullish and bearish traders.

“This last leg from $83k to $60k was a bear market fakeout, the kind that chops up bulls and bears in both directions,” Wintermute noted.

Bitcoin's next leg-up requires a return of liquidity

Wintermute said the next sustained rally will depend on liquidity returning through stablecoins, spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.

The report noted that assets under management (AuM) across DAT firms have fallen to roughly $140 billion from about $220 billion. At the same time, fundraising outside of companies such as Strategy, Bitmine and Strive has largely stalled.

"We need to see structural changes in momentum behind stablecoin mint/redeems, ETF flows and/or DAT activity,” Wintermute added.

Long-term holders continue accumulating as macro sensitivity remains elevated

K33 Research echoed similar views in a Tuesday report, highlighting that macroeconomic developments remain the dominant driver of Bitcoin's price.

The research firm noted that Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to nearly 0.6 despite the two assets posting sharply different performances this year.

While the S&P 500 trades near record highs, Bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its cycle peak, suggesting an increasing sensitivity to broader macro developments during market downturns.

“Correlations remained consistently near current levels throughout 2022 and only reached similar levels during BTC drawdowns in 2024, 2025, and 2026,” wrote K33 Head of Research, Vetle Lunde.

Investor attention is now shifting to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, which marks the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh.

"While markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, investors are focused on whether Warsh will signal a different approach to monetary policy and Fed communication than his predecessor," K33 noted.

Beyond macro factors, K33 pointed to improving on-chain fundamentals that could support Bitcoin over the longer term.

The firm noted that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) has eased significantly this year. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC aged at least two years had been reactivated. This number remains far below the 1.18 million BTC reactivated over the same period in 2024, indicating that fewer long-term investors are moving coins to exchanges for sale.

At the same time, LTHs now control a record 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, reflecting a pattern observed in previous Bitcoin bear cycles as the market approaches its bottom.

BTC is trading at $65,610, down 1.5% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.