British Pound weakens below 1.3500 as US launches new wave of strikes against Iran

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The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3470 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East trigger risk-off market sentiment and weigh on the Cable. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is due later on Friday.

GBP/USD softens to near 1.3470 in Friday’s Asian session.
The US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran for a sixth day in a row.
Traders still ramp up their bets on BoE rate hikes this year.

The United States (US) has carried out major strikes on Iran for the sixth day in a row. Officials in southern Iran’s Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, has been hit.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the attacks were intended to "further degrade Iranian military capabilities" before saying it had boarded a vessel as part of its blockade of the strait. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran's bridges and power plants if the country did not return to talks. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).

Data released on Tuesday showed that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in June, while data from Wednesday showed a decline in the Producer Price ‌Index (PPI). Traders are now pricing ‌in nearly a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On the UK front, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that he was concerned about the resumption of hostilities between the US ‌and Iran in recent days, but so far, there has been no big impact on the UK inflation outlook. Money markets are fully pricing in a BoE hike by the November policy meeting, with a second rate hike priced in by April 2027, according to Reuters.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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