• USD/CAD rises to its highest level since April 2025 as weak Canadian Retail Sales and lower Oil prices weigh on the Loonie.
• The Canadian Dollar faces another headwind from diverging Fed and BoC monetary policy outlooks.
• Markets price in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, according to CME FedWatch data.

USD/CAD trades on the front foot on Friday despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as weaker-than-expected Canadian Retail Sales data weighs on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4170, its highest level since April 2025.

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that Retail Sales rose 0.5% in April, down from a 0.9% increase in March and slightly below the 0.6% consensus forecast. Retail Sales excluding automobiles increased just 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.7%, while March's reading was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%.

The CAD is also facing pressure from diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). At this week's policy meeting, the Fed reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, while nine of 19 policymakers projected at least one rate hike this year.

The hawkish tilt comes as higher Oil prices have pushed US inflation higher, with May Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerating to 4.2%, its highest level since April 2023.

Following the meeting, markets priced in 70% chance of a September rate hike, according to CME FedWatch data, providing fresh support for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.81 after touching 101.13 earlier in the day, its highest level since May 2025.

By contrast, inflation pressures in Canada remain relatively contained. At last week's meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) said US tariffs argue for lower rates, although persistently high energy prices could justify "consecutive increases in the policy rate."

However, with Oil prices retreating following the US-Iran truce, the case for rate hikes has weakened. Lower crude prices are also adding pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie, given Canada's status as a major Oil exporter. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude trades around $75.50 per barrel, its lowest level since March 5.