ING’s Chris Turner notes that the broader Dollar trend is still mixed, with key inputs today including ADP jobs, consumer confidence, several Fed speakers and President Trump’s State of the Union address. He highlights the risk that strong January NFP data may be revised lower and expects the DXY to remain confined to a 97.50–98.00 range.

DXY seen capped in tight range

"As to the broader dollar trend, it remains quite mixed. Inputs into the story today will be the weekly ADP jobs figures, consumer confidence, Fed speakers and President Trump's State of the Union address tonight."

"In a speech yesterday, the Fed's Christopher Waller laid out the risks that the strong January NFP data could well be revised lower, given that it was inconsistent with other labour market data. A soft ADP print today might prove a mild dollar negative in that case. "

"On consumer confidence, the divergence between very pessimistic consumer surveys and strong actual spending remains acute. A modest pick-up in February consumer confidence data today then looks unlikely to move the needle on the dollar. "

"We also have a handful of Fed speakers, where the likes of Goolsbee and Bostic sit at the more hawkish end of the spectrum."

"The DXY dollar index has stalled at 98.00 on a couple of occasions now, and we prefer a 97.50-98.00 range here."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)