Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 closed at another record high, while the NASDAQ logged a 12-session winning streak, its longest since 2009. Jim Reid cautions that a similarly sharp 11‑day rally in March 2022, driven by ceasefire hopes in Ukraine, ultimately preceded renewed equity weakness, framing the current move as a potential warning signal.

US equities rally but past warns caution

"That backdrop meant that oil prices moved higher yesterday, with Brent crude (+4.70%) closing at $99.39/bbl. Yet despite the latest advance for oil prices, the US equity rally continued."

"So not only did the S&P 500 (+0.26%) reach another record high, but yesterday saw the NASDAQ (+0.36%) advance for a 12th consecutive session for the first time since 2009."

"Generally I'm sympathetic to the view that a resolution is more likely than not over the coming weeks even if the path is unlikely to be a straight line. However the CoTD yesterday reminded us that the last time we had a larger move in the S&P 500 in 11 business days than we’ve just seen since March 30 (+10.7%) was back in March 2022."

"Back then, it was because of expectations that Russian and Ukraine talks would end up in an early ceasefire to the war which was only weeks old at the time. That obviously didn't end well and the bear market soon continued."

"So one warning sign from the recent past."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)