USD/CAD edges up to 1.3660 with Iran, Fed's Warsh on focus

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The US Dollar (USD) shows marginal gains against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Tuesday, trimming losses after a six-day selloff. The USD/CAD pair has reached session highs right above 1.3660 but remains relatively close to the five-week lows of 1.3635 set the previous day.

USD/CAD picks up to 1.3660 but maintains the bearish trend intact.
Investors remain cautious amid mixed messages from the US-Iran peace process.
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will testify at the confirmation hearing later on Tuesday.

The CAD received an additional boost on Monday, as Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures confirmed that inflationary levels accelerated in March, although not as much as the market expected. This gives the Bank of Canada (BoC) some leeway to keep interest rates steady while awaiting further data.

Mixed messages from the US-Iran peace talks

Markets remain relatively calm on Tuesday, awaiting further developments from the US-Iran peace talks. A report by the Wall Street Journal affirmed on Monday that Tehran will finally send a delegation to Pakistan after threatening to pull out from the peace process, following the seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US military in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters has cited an anonymous US official saying that “things are moving forward” and that US President Donald Trump might join the meeting in person or virtually if the parties reach a deal. Iran, however, has shown concern about US demands that are not ready to meet. Meanwhile, the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday, and the US president affirmed that it will not be extended.

The US economic calendar will also gather pace on Tuesday with the March Retail Sales. Consumption is expected to have increased 1.4%, following a 0.6% gain in February, although the control group, more relevant from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) perspective, is seen slowing down to 0.2% from 0.5% in February.

A few hours later, the recently appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, will face the confirmation hearing at the US Senate, with the central bank’s independence issue likely to be the main topic.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (YoY)

The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of goods sold at the retail level during a year. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. A result higher than expected is typically viewed as positive or bullish for the USD, whereas a lower than expected result is considered negative or bearish for the USD.

Why it matters to traders?

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

Economic Indicator

Fed Chair-designate Warsh testifies

Kevin Warsh (April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who has been nominated by President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.