Eurozone flash Composite PMI expands faster than expected to 51.9 in February
Por Sagar Dua
Data de Publicação: 20 Feb 2026 | Data de Modificação: 20 Feb 2026
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Eurozone's preliminary HCOB Composite PMI arrives at 51.9 in February, higher than estimates of 51.5 and the prior reading of 51.3. The overall business output expanded at a faster pace due to an improvement in both the manufacturing and the services sector activity.
Eurozone's preliminary HCOB Composite PMI arrives at 51.9 in February, higher than estimates of 51.5 and the prior reading of 51.3. The overall business output expanded at a faster pace due to an improvement in both the manufacturing and the services sector activity. The manufacturing sector activity has returned to growth after declining for several months, and the service sector output has expanded at a faster pace
The Manufacturing PMI has come in higher at 50.8 against estimates of 50.0 and the previous release of 49.5. Meanwhile, the Service PMI rises to 51.8 from 51.6, but misses estimates of 52.0.
Market reaction
The impact of the upbeat Eurozone PMI data appears to be insignificant on the Euro (EUR), which has already shown positive response to strong German PMI numbers, which published at 08:30 GMT. At the press time, EUR/USD trades 0.1% lower to near 1.1760 after recovering significant early losses.
(This section was published at 08:32 GMT after the release of German PMI data for February.)
German Composite PMI expands at a faster-than-expected pace to 53.1 in February, according to flash estimates. Economists expected the overall business output to come in marginally higher at 52.2 from 52.1 in January. The return of the Manufacturing PMI above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, and a surprisingly faster expansion in the services sector activity, have boosted composite figures.
The Manufacturing PMI arrives at 50.7 from the previous reading of 49.1. The Services PMI expanded at a faster pace to 53.4 from 52.4 in January, which was estimated to drop slightly to 52.2.
“Hurray, German industry is growing again. For the first time in more than three-and-a-half years, the headline manufacturing PMI is back in expansionary territory. This confirms the tentative signs of an economic turnaround that were particularly evident in January. It is particularly encouraging that new orders have risen robustly, suggesting that production growth will continue in the coming months. This view is supported by order backlogs, which have risen for the first time since mid-2022, albeit only moderately. Higher new orders from abroad, which have risen again after six months of decline, have also helped here. We expect the government's infrastructure program and higher military spending to provide increasing tailwinds for industry," Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), said.
Market reaction
There seems to be a positive impact of upbeat German PMI data on the Euro (EUR). As of writing, EUR/USD trades 0.1% lower to 1.1760, but has recovered major early losses.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.20% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.30% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.24% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.27% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.20% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.21% | -0.16% | 0.11% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.33% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.16% | -0.04% | 0.28% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.27% | -0.11% | -0.33% | -0.28% | -0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.07% | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This section below was published at 07:02 GMT as a preview of the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs data for February)
German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview
The preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.
Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.
The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to come in marginally higher at 52.2 from 52.1 in January. The manufacturing sector output is anticipated to have contracted again, but at a moderate pace. Manufacturing PMI is seen arriving at 49.6, higher than the previous reading of 49.1. A figure below 50.0 is seen as a contraction in the business activity. The Services PMI is estimated to come in lower at 52.2 from 52.4 in January.
The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI also shows that the overall private sector output increased at a faster pace due to an improvement in both manufacturing and the services sector activity. The Composite PMI is estimated at 51.5, higher than 51.3 in January. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to return to the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The Services PMI is seen higher at 52.0 from the prior release of 51.6.
How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?
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EUR/USD trades 0.14% lower to near 1.1755 at the press time. The major currency pair posts a fresh swing low at 1.1742 on Thursday, suggesting the onset of a bearish trend. Also, the pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1817, indicating a bearish near-term trend. The 20-day EMA is rolling over and acts as near-term resistance.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44, below the midline and slipping, signals weakening momentum.
Below the declining 20-day EMA, rebounds would remain capped, and risk would remain skewed to the downside. A daily close below Thursday's low of 1.1742 would open the door for further downside toward the January 22 low of 1.1670.
On the contrary, a recovery move back above the average could ease bearish pressure and open room for recovery toward the February 11 high of 1.1927.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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