LME Copper prices moved above $10,800/t (the highest since May 2024) as supply concerns keep the market in tight supply. In the latest supply disruptions, Tech Resources cut its output forecast for the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile, worsening global supply concerns, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Copper usage is expected to rise by 3% YoY this year

"The company revised its 2025 production estimate from 210kt – 230kt to 170kt – 190kt and lowered its annual production targets for the next three years. This was largely due to challenges with tailings storage at the high-altitude site in the Andes, along with ship loader damage and instability in the mine pit. Copper has surged around 23% so far this year, driven by supply disruptions at major mines that outweigh weak demand in major industrial economies."

"Meanwhile, the international Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts the global Copper market to witness a supply deficit of 150kt in 2026 compared to its earlier forecast of a surplus of 209kt. For 2025, the group lowered the surplus estimates to 178kt in 2025, compared to its previous estimates of 289kt of surplus. Global mine supply is forecasted to rise by 1.4% YoY this year and 2.3% YoY in 2026."

"Meanwhile, refined Copper supply growth was revised up from 2.9% YoY to 3.4% YoY for the current year, mainly due to continued expansion in Chinese capacity and new capacity additions in the DRC, India and Indonesia. For 2026, refined output is expected to increase by just 0.9% YoY, supported by ramped-up capacity but offset by limited Copper concentrate availability. On the consumption side, global refined Copper usage is expected to rise by 3% YoY this year and 2.1% YoY in 2026."