Euro (EUR) could test the 1.1490 level again; the major support at 1.1470 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, the likelihood of EUR breaking below 1.1470 has increased; EUR must close below 1.1470 before further declines are likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Above 1.1570, downside risk likely to fade

24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated on Friday that EUR 'appears to have entered a consolidation phase between 1.1505 and 1.1550'. However, after rising to a high of 1.1552, EUR dropped to a low of 1.1488. EUR then recovered from the low and closed slightly lower at 1.1511 (-0.14%). The slight increase in downward momentum is not sufficient to indicate a continued decline. That said, EUR could test the 1.1490 level again. Based on the current momentum, any further decline is unlikely to threaten the major support at 1.1470. Resistance is at 1.1530, followed by 1.1550."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted last Thursday (20 Nov, spot at 1.1540) that 'the bias for EUR has shifted to the downside, even though it is currently too early to tell whether it can reach the early-month low, near 1.1470'. EUR dropped to a low of 1.1488 on Friday, and the likelihood of EUR breaking below 1.1470 has increased. However, EUR must close below 1.1470 before further declines are likely. On the upside, if EUR breaks above 1.1570 (‘strong resistance’ was at 1.1580 last Friday), it would indicate that the downside risk has faded."