Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights a complex European backdrop for the Euro (EUR), with Ukraine’s battlefield gains, EU financing plans, and internal political splits. He notes concerns over delayed US weapons shipments, limited EU accession benefits for Kyiv, and rising defence industrial activity in Germany, all set against broader US–Europe frictions on security and foreign policy.

Ukraine support and internal divisions

"In Europe, Ukraine may be seeing a ‘Second Miracle Year’ and “For the first time in years, outright victory seems possible” via its drone strikes."

"Moreover, the EU is bracing for delays to promised US weapons shipments due to the Iran war, as The Times says the UK isn’t seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers in its waters because berthing and maintaining them could cost too much(!) Meanwhile, France and Germany are said to be considering proposals to give Ukraine only "symbolic" benefits during a normal EU accession process, without granting Kyiv access to the EU's common budget or voting rights."

"In the same way there may be only symbolic weaponry if the US isn’t able to step up? That’s as the Wall Street Journal notes, ‘In Germany, Everyone Is a Defence Manufacturer Now’ as firms “scramble to reinvent themselves as military vendors to tap into the country’s accelerated rearmament.”"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)