BLS Scraps October Jobs Data, Delays November Report, Leaving the Fed in the Dark
On November 19, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stunned markets by officially cancelling the October nonfarm payrolls report and pushing the November jobs data release back to December 16. This means that when the Fed convenes its December 10 policy meeting, it will be forced to make decisions without the latest employment data.
This highly unusual arrangement stems from the breakdown of data-collection systems caused by the recent government shutdown. In its statement, the BLS admitted:
“The October household survey data cannot be recovered through subsequent work and will be permanently missing from the historical series.”
To make matters worse, the JOLTS job-openings report that was scheduled for early November has also been cancelled, further complicating any assessment of labor-market conditions.
For now, the Fed can only piece together the employment picture using a handful of high-frequency indicators:
Weekly initial jobless claims (215,000 in the most recent week)
ADP private payrolls (189,000 jobs added in October)
Challenger job-cut report (October layoffs up 175% year-on-year)
“This is like shutting down the radar system in the middle of a storm,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Policymakers will be setting the course relying entirely on outdated data.” The latest official unemployment rate is 4.2% for September — a figure that is now almost three months old.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients:
“The data vacuum has all but taken a December rate cut off the table. The Fed needs clear evidence of economic slowing, and right now it simply can’t see it.”
Interest-rate futures reflect this shift: market expectations for a December rate cut have plunged from 68% a month ago to just 28% now.
Fed Minutes Reveal Three Major Fault Lines
The Fed’s latest October meeting minutes show sharp internal divisions over further rate cuts. In summary, while those who believe there is no need for additional cuts this year do not yet constitute a majority, they outnumber the officials actively supporting more easing, with a group of centrists sitting on the fence and “data-dependent.”
The decision-makers are clearly split on three key issues:
December Rate-Cut Path
“Many” officials believe rates should be kept unchanged in December, while “several” support further cuts. Those opposed to more easing worry that inflation could remain above the 2% target for longer, while the pro-cut camp argues that an overly restrictive policy stance risks damaging the labor market.Inflation Assessment
Fed officials also differ in their reading of inflation. Some note that excluding the impact of tariffs, inflation is already close to the Fed’s target. However, more participants emphasize that headline inflation has been running above 2% for an extended period, with little evidence that it will return to target in a timely and sustainable manner.Financial-Stability Risks
A number of participants voiced concern over “elevated asset valuations” in financial markets and highlighted the risk of disorderly equity price declines — especially if the market suddenly reassesses the outlook for artificial-intelligence-related technologies.
By contrast, the Fed is largely aligned on balance-sheet policy: almost all participants support halting quantitative tightening (QT) in December.
Nvidia Earnings Show the AI Revolution Is Still Accelerating
In its earnings report released on November 19 (local time), Nvidia delivered a stunning set of results that made one thing abundantly clear to the doubters: the AI revolution is nowhere near its peak.
For its fiscal third quarter, Nvidia smashed expectations across the board:
Revenue: 57.01 billion USD, up 62% year-on-year, beating consensus by nearly 2 billion USD
Adjusted EPS: 1.30 USD, topping forecasts by 0.02 USD
Data-center revenue: Surged to 51.2 billion USD, up 66% year-on-year
Q4 revenue guidance: Around 65 billion USD, well above the 61.66 billion USD expected by the market
The most impressive aspect of this report lies in the quality of growth. On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang revealed that the new Blackwell-architecture GPUs are “sold out through 2026,” with demand visibility continuing to extend. He stressed that AI inference workloads are growing at an “exponential pace” and now account for roughly 40% of data-center revenue.
“We are witnessing a fundamental shift,” Huang said. “From training to inference, from cloud to edge, computing demand is exploding across every dimension. Those who talk about an AI bubble should take a look at our order book.”
Breakdowns by segment show:
Compute (GPU) revenue: 43 billion USD
Networking (including InfiniBand): 8.2 billion USD
This mix underscores that AI cluster deployments are growing not only in size but also in complexity — it’s far more than just buying more chips.
The market reacted immediately and enthusiastically: Nvidia shares jumped 3.7% in after-hours trading, lifting peers such as AMD and Broadcom, while cloud giants including Microsoft and Google also moved higher. The price action suggests renewed confidence in AI infrastructure spending.
Joseph Moore, analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote:
“This print should temporarily put to rest concerns about the sustainability of AI capex. Nvidia is not just delivering growth; it is demonstrating the deepening of its technological moat.”
