The AUD is sitting at the top of the 1-day G10 FX performance table this morning on the back of the bounce back in risk sentiment. After Friday’s sell-off, US stock market futures have been pointing higher this morning on the back of President Trump’s more conciliatory tone on trade with China over the weekend. The week ahead promises to offer fresh direction for the AUD. Not only is the situation regarding US/China trade set to evolve, but the market is also set to fine tune its expectations regarding the outlook for the November 4 RBA policy decision, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

RBA minutes and labour data in focus

"Feeding into the market’s outlook on rates will be the minutes of the September RBA policy meeting which are due for release tomorrow and Australia’s September labour data which are timetabled later in the week. In line with our view, broad-based short-covering in favour of the USD has returned AUD/USD to the 0.65 area. We expect AUD/USD to hold a choppy range close to current levels on a 1-to-3-month view but continue to see scope for another move higher in AUD/USD into the new year."

"In our view, the recent short-covering pressure in favour of the USD stems from the high level of bad news and Fed rate cuts already priced-into the greenback. This may have further too run near-term but the position adjustment should provide a fresher platform for the market to weigh up US fundamentals. The absence of official US data makes it difficult to fine tune expectations around Fed policy."

"That said, developments on US/China trade could have implications for both US inflation and growth forecasts. In addition, it is possible that the issue of Fed independence will return into the spring as Powell’s term as Fed chair ends. Concerns about Fed independence would suggest scope for another broad-based dip in the value of the USD and we see scope for AUD/USD to edge higher to 0.68 on a 12-month view."