ICE Brent edged slightly lower but proved resilient amid a broader risk-off move, supported by a weaker US dollar and firm time-spreads signaling tight spot supply. Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and renewed strength in the gasoil crack, ahead of the EU ban on Russian-linked refined products, are providing additional support to the Oil complex, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Trade tensions and weaker USD support Oil

"While ICE Brent edged lower yesterday, settling 0.3% lower on the day, it held up relatively well amid the broader risk-off move in markets. This follows the re-emergence of trade tensions between the US and Europe over President Trump's Greenland demands. A weaker US dollar provided some support to Oil and the broader commodities complex. Continued firmness in ICE Brent time-spreads will also help buoy the market, as it suggests a tighter spot physical market."

"In Kazakhstan, TengizchevrOil temporarily stopped production at its Tengiz and Korolev fields after two fires broke out at power generators. The producer pumped around 890k b/d over the first three quarters of 2025. Kazakhstan has faced several supply disruptions in recent months, including exports from the CPC terminal in Russia, which were impacted by drone strikes."

"The ICE gasoil crack has seen renewed strength in recent days, edging back towards US$25/bbl. The strength in the European middle distillate market coincides with the EU’s ban on refined product imports produced from Russian Oil. The ban comes into effect on 21 January. While trade flows have had time to adjust to the ban, it may still lead to some disruption. The ban will largely affect middle distillate flows from India to Europe. Some Indian refiners are reportedly adjusting their crude purchases to continue selling into the EU."